Learning how to make money betting on football is not easy, but some strategies work. If you’ve been looking for a way to win betting on the NFL, this post will help you. And many of the same strategies work in college football too. You’ll need a different strategy than you would if you were just making fun football bets with friends, though.
An NFL profit strategy is the Holy Grail of sports gamblers. You can make bigger bets on NFL games than other games. And there are plenty of games every week during the season to bet on.
Keep reading to learn how to make money betting on NFL games. I include the mistakes that most gamblers make and how to change from a losing gambler to a winning gambler.
The Math Most NFL Gamblers Use
Do you know the average NFL gambler wins about half of their bets made on the point spread? If you think this through, it makes a lot of sense.
Sportsbooks take a lot of bets on every NFL game, and the way point spreads work, the long-term average is about 50/50 on each side of the games. Of course, on individual games, more people might bet on one side of the game or the other, but as an overall average, most NFL gamblers win half the time.
And the sportsbooks love these numbers because it means the sportsbooks are making a ton of money. When the sportsbooks take equal money on both sides of a game, they win half the vig gamblers pay to place bets.
The reason it’s important to know about these numbers is because this is how most NFL gamblers operate. They place bets and lose sometimes and win sometimes, and in the long run, they win about half of their wagers.
But you’re losing money when you only win half your bets.
Here’s an example of a small time gambler who makes $11 wagers on NFL games.
They bet on 200 games and win 100 of their bets. It cost $2,200 to make the bets, and they got back $2,100 on the bets they won. So, even though they won half their bets, they still lost $100.
Where did the $100 go that they lost? It was profit for the sportsbook. And if the sportsbook has thousands of bettors like this, the sportsbook is making plenty of money. And this is exactly what sportsbooks have.
How to Change the Losing Math
If you want to change the losing math that most NFL gamblers are using, you have to do a few things differently than the average gambler does. So here are some important things you need to change if you want to make money betting on football:
Handicapping – You can’t count on luck if you want to make money betting on football. While luck might seem like something that matters in a game, over the long run, luck evens out.
The thing you need to learn how to do is handicap NFL games. Handicapping is a way to evaluate games so you can predict which team is going to win and by how many points.
Shop for the best lines – Not only do you need to learn how to handicap NFL games, but you also need to find the best lines before placing your bets.
Watch as many games as you can – The best handicappers use statistics and watch as many games as they can. You have to combine what you see with statistics if you want to do a thorough handicapping job.
Don’t bet without value – Handicappers compare their predictions with eth lines to see if they can make value bets. When the line is close to what you predict, there’s no value.
Pay less vig – Vig costs you money on every bet, so you lose less money if you can pay less vig. And more importantly, you don’t have to win as many games to make a profit when you pay lower vig.
Building Your Handicapping Skills
Your handicapping skills are the only thing that will determine if you win or lose money betting on NFL games. So if you’re not making money yet, it’s because you have to improve your handicapping skills.
The biggest challenge you face is there’s not an exact way to build a handicapping system that works for everyone. So I can’t give you a complete guide, but I can give you some direction.
Handicapping skills are a combination of statistical analysis and visual analysis. You have to learn how to sift through statistics to find the ones that help you handicap games while ignoring the stats that aren’t helpful.
Then you need to use what you see when you watch NFL games and players with the statistic to predict games. You don’t need to learn how to predict exact finals cores, but you do have to learn how to predict which team will win and by roughly how many points they’re going to win.
The only thing left to do is practice. Start handicapping games and see how you do. The more games you handicap, the more you learn about your current skills and which skills you need to improve.
How to Make Money Betting on Football – Putting It All Together into a System
As you learn how to handicap NFL games and improve your handicapping skills, you’re going to start seeing patterns and learning how statistics influence future games.
When this starts happening, it’s time to put everything you know into a system. Then, you can plug in the correct statistics and use what you see to make adjustments with a system. When you do this correctly, you end up with accurate predictions.
Once you have accurate predictions, all you have to do is find lines that don’t agree with your predictions, and you can make bets with value.
No matter how good your system is, you’re still not going to win every bet. In fact, if you can build a system that wins 55% or more of your point spread wagers, you’re going to make a lot of money betting on NFL games.
Once you have a profitable system developed, don’t rest too easy. Keep testing your system and trying new statistics and variables to see if you can improve the system. Sportsbooks change the way they set lines, and a system might stop working, so you need to be prepared.
A Quick, Profitable NFL Strategy to Start With
Here’s a quick, profitable NFL betting strategy you can start with:
I still use this system, and you can build your system off of this system when you start betting on the NFL. Of course, you still need to build your handicapping skills and create your own system. You’re going to make more money when you do. And those skills will make this strategy work even better.
Every week, look at the schedule of NFL games and look at the lines. Identify all of the games where the home team is an underdog and every game that has even odds. Even odds games have a point spread of 0, but you can also look at games with a point spread of – 1 or + 1.
Most weeks, there will be at least one or two games on the schedule that meet these requirements. And sometimes there will be four or five games.
What You Should Do
In each of these games, identify the team that has the best quarterback. Then determine which team has the best offensive line and defensive line.
On the games with an even point spread or that have a – 1 or + 1 line, if the same team has the best quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line, bet on that team. If the team is playing at home and they have the best quarterback, and one of their lines is better, you can still bet on that team.
In the games where the home team is the underdog, if they have the best quarterback, bet on them. If they don’t have a better quarterback, don’t bet on the game. You won’t be betting on these games most of the time because a home team with the better quarterback is almost always favored.
This is a tight system, and some weeks you won’t be able to bet on any games. But most systems for the NFL are more complicated than this, and I wanted to share a working system with you in this post.
And that’s how to make money on football betting — one way, at least.
Conclusion – How to Make Money on Football Betting
A profitable strategy for how to make a profit betting on NFL games is a challenge. But when you follow the steps in this post, you’re on the right path.
Learning how to handicap NFL games is the best skill you can build, but you can use the profitable strategy listed in this post until you build the right set of skills.
Work on developing the perfect handicapping system, and when you succeed, you can make plenty of money betting on NFL games. And you can have tons of fun watching several games every week while you work on your handicapping skills.